Reliability Prediction for a Thermal System Using CFD and FEM Simulations

A general procedure for reliability prediction is introduced. The procedure is applied to a cylindrical ring and can be used for any similar thermal application. The procedure is classified as a physics-based reliability prediction method. It utilizes different computational tools such as Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Finite Element Method (FEM), and Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS). The process starts with CFD simulation to find the convective terms necessary for the transient FEM thermal analysis. The transient FEM thermal analysis provides values for thermal stress. These values are used in the fatigue life analysis. The end result is the fatigue life of the component. As a result of input parameters uncertainty, the resulting life will be in the form of a Probability Density Function (PDF), which enables the calculation of the reliability of the component.Copyright © 2008 by ASME