Biogeographical Patterns of Local Adaptation and Plasticity of Mediterranean Pines and Their Implications Under Climate Change

The persistence of species distribution ranges depends on the tolerance and adaptive capacity of populations to novel conditions created by a changing climate. In the particular case of Mediterranean pines, which realized climatic niches are largely influenced by temperature, expected warmer climates may push them to their ecophysiological limits. To understand the vulnerability of Mediterranean pines to climate change, we review the main drivers of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity and their contribution to phenotypic variation in fitness-related traits across the distribution ranges of Mediterranean pines. We also provide some examples of species distribution models based on tree growth measured in common gardens. Overall, models based on the adaptive capacity and the tolerance of populations to climate change present a less alarming message than species distribution models based on trees’ occurrence about the future of Mediterranean pines. To fully understand the vulnerability of Mediterranean pines to climate change, the limits of phenotypic plasticity for drought-resistance traits need to be explored at large geographical scales.