Mitigating Flexible Riser Risk by Focused Monitoring and Digital Analytics

This paper presents the development of a predictive model for topside annulus vent gas flow from a flexible riser and the infrastructure to feed live operational data from the offshore process, subsea and vent systems to a cloud solution. The presented data is accessed and processed through analytics prior to live presentation on a digital platform accessible to offshore and onshore subsea engineers, and to anyone inside or outside the operator's organization in need for the data and operational status. The aim is to use all available sensor data related to five operative high temperature flexible risers to reveal emerging evolvement of a failure mode previously experienced on similar risers in similar service. Carcass collapse in the seabed segment of the flexible riser is identified as the key failure mode in need for mitigation actions. The collapse is caused by excessive pressure in pipe designs with multi-layer pressure sheath, and has been observed on several occasions during startup after longer maintenance and shut down periods. As the flow rate in the risers is moderate and the performance of wells varies, it is not possible to identify the carcass collapse by pressure drop monitoring, not even with detailed analysis of pressure differences topside and subsea. Concatenating all pressure, temperature, annulus volume testing, inspection and annulus monitoring data in real time established the basis for applying machine learning techniques to identify when a carcass failure emerged. Combining data analytics with in depth understanding of the flexible pipe cross section, failure mode development and pipe dissection experiences enabled an analytics solution providing early warning of an emerging damage. As all the utilized measurement data was available, also for two previous carcass damages in identical risers, validation and confidence of the models could be established to identify these damages early. On this basis, it was concluded that the focused monitoring and digital analytics gave sufficient risk mitigation for the five remaining operating risers of the same type.