Measuring trade specialization dynamics: the case of Romania and Bulgaria

The paper analyzes the evolution of trade specialization in Romania and Bulgaria beginning with the mid-1990s–2012. Methodologically, two statistical methods are applied: cross-section analysis and the Markov chain technique. These methods are used both to establish a link between different distributions of trade specialization indicators in time and to find out if Romania and Bulgaria have mainly specialized in competitive or non-competitive products. Although the main acceding countries to European Union had registered an increasing degree of specialization, our results indicate an opposite trend for the two countries.