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Two-Meter Temperature and Precipitation from Atmospheric Reanalysis Evaluated for Alaska
- Source :
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 55:901-922
- Publication Year :
- 2016
- Publisher :
- American Meteorological Society, 2016.
-
Abstract
- Alaska is experiencing effects of global climate change that are due, in large part, to the positive feedback mechanisms associated with polar amplification. The major risk factors include loss of sea ice and glaciers, thawing permafrost, increased wildfires, and ocean acidification. Reanalyses, integral to understanding mechanisms of Alaska’s past climate and to helping to calibrate modeling efforts, are based on the output of weather forecast models that assimilate observations. This study evaluates temperature and precipitation from five reanalyses at monthly and daily time scales for the period 1979–2009. Monthly data are evaluated spatially at grid points and for six climate zones in Alaska. In addition, daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation from reanalyses are compared with meteorological-station data at six locations. The reanalyses evaluated in this study include the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (R1), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), ERA-Interim, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). Maps of seasonal bias and standard deviation, constructed from monthly data, show how the reanalyses agree with observations spatially. Cross correlations between the monthly gridded and daily station time series are computed to provide a measure of confidence that data users can assume when selecting reanalysis data in a region without many surface observations. A review of natural hazards in Alaska indicates that MERRA is the top reanalysis for wildfire and interior-flooding applications. CFSR is the recommended reanalysis for North Slope coastal erosion issues and, along with ERA-Interim, for heavy precipitation in southeastern Alaska.
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric Science
geography
geography.geographical_feature_category
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
0208 environmental biotechnology
Global warming
Glacier
02 engineering and technology
Permafrost
Atmospheric sciences
Numerical weather prediction
01 natural sciences
020801 environmental engineering
Climatology
Sea ice
Climate Forecast System
Polar amplification
Environmental science
Precipitation
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15588432 and 15588424
- Volume :
- 55
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........57e6f9a07950c24b7121b98a9be94169