The irrigation scheduling problem and evapotranspiration uncertainty

Scheduling and determining of irrigation water applications are important considerations given limited water resources and increasing concern about agricultural productivity. Past literature has repeatedly been concerned with the influence of the variability of actual evapotranspiration on crop irrigation needs. This work investigates the above issue. A model, based on stochastic dynamic programing, is formulated to maximize net benefits from a crop facing uncertain, correlated evapotranspiration demands. Weekly irrigation decisions are made after observing current soil moisture and available irrigation water, as well as potential evapotranspiration in the past week. The model is similar to the traditional reservoir control algorithms popular in the surface water literature. A case study example indicates that although the model formulation is useful and feasible, the effect of uncertain evapotranspiration on irrigation performance measures is apparently minimal. This work should be of interest to researchers of agricultural management and to those studying the applications and use of operation research techniques in water resources. Computer programs utilized in this paper are available from the authors.