Phenotype–environment mismatch errors enhance lifetime fitness in wild red squirrels

Mismatches between an organism’s phenotype and its environment can result in short-term fitness costs. Here, we show that some phenotype – environment mismatch errors can be explained by asymmetrical costs of different types of errors in wild red squirrels. Mothers that mistakenly increased reproductive effort when signals of an upcoming food pulse were absent were more likely to correctly increase effort when a food pulse did occur. However, mothers that failed to increase effort when cues of an upcoming food pulse were present suffered lifetime fitness costs that could only be offset through food supplementation. In fluctuating environments, such phenotype – environment mismatches may therefore reflect a bias to overestimate environmental cues and avoid making the costliest error, ultimately enhancing lifetime fitness.