Simulation of water surge processes and analysis of water surge bearing capacity in Boao Bay, Hainan Island, China

This study analyzed the characteristics and the bearing capacity of water surge disasters in Boao Bay, a typical estuarine lagoon. The Danish Hydraulic Institute's (DHI's) MIKE 21 modeling suite was used to numerically simulate the water surges from flood, storm, and combined flood and storm processes. The results show that, in Boao Bay, the peak water surge level caused by the combination of flooding and storm surges is very similar to the level caused by flooding or storm surges alone. Additionally, the storm surge bearing capacity is much greater than the flood bearing capacity. When there is only one entrance, the bay's flood bearing capacity increases with the entrance width, but when the entrance width exceeds 550 m, the flood bearing capacity stabilizes rapidly. However, opening an additional entrance to the south can further increase the flood bearing capacity. Based on hydrometeorological forecasts, this study suggests that the risk of water surge disasters can be reduced by proactively modifying the shape of the entrance.