Predictive Model of Habitat Suitability for the Marbled Murrelet in Western Washington

The marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is a small Pacific seabird with a breeding range that extends from the Aleutian Islands to central California. Throughout most of its breeding range, it uses mature and old-growth coniferous forests as nesting habitat. Although most murrelets seem to nest within 60 km of the coast, occupied nesting habitat has been identified as far as 84 km from the ocean in Washington state. Due to the extensive inland distances within which birds are known to breed, the area requiring surveys to identify breeding sites can be enormous. Therefore, the standard 2-year survey protocol can be expensive and time-consuming for forest management agencies and companies to administer. We developed a logistic regression model to determine whether a suite of forest structural characteristics could be used to reliably predict occupancy of a forest patch by marbled murrelets. We tested the performance of the final model using cross-validation procedures and a sample of indepe...