Probabilistic reliability analysis of future power systems - survey and example

In the power system of the future, reliability will play an important role. This reliability is influenced by different developments like the increase in electricity consumption and the use of renewable and distributed generation. It is important to have a good insight into the reliability performance of the system. With probabilistic methods, the reliability of the power system can be analyzed and decisions can be made to maintain the high reliability level that we demand. This paper gives an overview of the different developments in power systems and describes how these developments influence the reliability of the future power system. The possibilities to implement these developments into the probabilistic reliability analysis in network planning and operational planning are discussed. By use of an example, the possibilities and challenges of probabilistic methods in operational planning are illustrated.