Can leaf drought tolerance predict species abundance and its changes in tropical-subtropical forests?

Climate change has resulted in an increase in drought severity in the species-rich tropical and subtropical forests of southern China. Exploring the spatiotemporal relationship between drought-tolerance trait and tree abundance provides a means to elucidate the impact of droughts on community assembly and dynamics. In this study, we measured the leaf turgor loss point (πtlp) for 399 tree species from three tropical forest plots and three subtropical forest plots. The plot area was 1 ha and tree abundance was calculated as total basal area per hectare according to the nearest community census data. The first aim of this study was to explore πtlp abundance relationships in the six plots across a range of precipitation seasonality. Additionally, three of the six plots (two tropical forests and one subtropical forest) had consecutive community censuses data (12–22 years) and the mortality ratios and abundance year slope of tree species were analyzed. The second aim was to examine whether πtlp is a predictor of tree mortality and abundance changes. Our results showed that tree species with lower (more negative) πtlp were more abundant in the tropical forests with relative high seasonality. However, πtlp was not related to tree abundance in the subtropical forests with low seasonality. Moreover, πtlp was not a good predictor of tree mortality and abundance changes in both humid and dry forests. This study reveals the restricted role of πtlp in predicting the response of forests to increasing droughts under climate change.