Quantifying the Effects of Environmental Change on an Oyster Population: A Modeling Study

Three models are combined to investigate the effects of changes in environmental conditions on the population structure of the Eastern oyster,Crassostrea virginica. The first model, a time-dependent model of the oyster population as described in Powell et al. (1992, 1994, 1995a,b, 1996, 1997) and Hofmann et al. (1992, 1994, 1995), tracks the distribution, development, spawning, and mortality of sessile oyster populations. The second model, a time-dependent larval growth model as described in Dekshenieks et al. (1993), simulates larval growth and mortality. The final model, a finite element hydrodynamic model, simulates the circulation in Galveston Bay, Texas. The coupled post-settlement-larval model (the oyster model) runs within the finite element grid at locations that include known oyster reef habitats. The oyster model was first forced with 5 yr of mean environmental conditions to provide a reference simulation for Galveston Bay. Additional simulations considered the effects of long-term increases and decreases in freshwater inflow and temperature, as well as decreases in food concentration and total seston on Galveston Bay oyster populations. In general, the simulations show that salinity is the primary environmental factor controling the spatial extent of oyster distribution within the estuary. Results also indicate a need to consider all environmental factors when attempting to predict the response of oyster populations; it is the superposition of a combination of these factors that determines the state of the population. The results from this study allow predictions to be made concerning the effects of environmental change on the status of oyster populations, both within Galveston Bay and within other estuarine systems supporting oyster populations.