The pattern of childhood and related adult malignancies near Kingston-upon-Hull

A study of childhood malignancies in North Humberside for 1974-1986 has revealed significant spatial aggregations. Though no specific reason was found, certain geographical areas, tumour groups and putative risks were identified for further study. One possible risk was a tin smelter to the west of Hull. A new method of analysis (Stone's conditional Poisson maximum) was used and showed some evidence of increased risk close to the smelter. This was accounted for by the solid tumours (primarily central nervous system malignancies) and was not apparent for the leukaemias. The Poisson maximum method is a special case of isotonic regression; a more general isotonic regression method, also due to Stone, Maximum Likelihood Ratio (MLR), is also available, and for reasons described elsewhere we prefer the more general method. The present study begins by applying this to the childhood data and then to data for corresponding adult disease (leukemias and central nervous system tumours) in the same area and time period. In both children and adults the results are negative for the leukaemias. For the remaining tumour categories, there is a significant increase in risk close to the smelter, but it is not possible to identify any aspect of the smelter or feature in its vicinity as causative.