Maneuvering Uncertainty: Scenario Planning in Belize

The IDB has been experimenting with the Scenario Planning methodology since 2019 in order to challenge and innovate its approach to strategic planning, as well as to enhance the agility with which it anticipates and adapts for the delivery of its mission. Belize was identified as a prime candidate that would benefit from testing and deployment of the Strategic Planning Exercise. This methodology will complement the preparation cycle work of the Country Strategy of the IDB with Belize for the period 2022-2026. It is also expected to challenge the traditional process by exploring uncertainty in the contextual environment, but more specifically, by considering those factors which may influence the IDBs work, but which are out of IDBs control. This paper presents two Scenarios for Belize's future towards 2030, as well as the process involved in developing these scenarios. The scenarios are dissected to identify their most salient themes and are followed by a discussion of potential implications, should the scenarios materialize. Also considered are steps the country may introduce presently in order to be better prepared for potential challenges and how the IDB, through the Country Office, may support building Belize's resilience for such scenarios.