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Forecast for sunspot cycle 25 activity
- Source :
- Advances in Space Research. 69:794-797
- Publication Year :
- 2022
- Publisher :
- Elsevier BV, 2022.
-
Abstract
- Yearly sunspot cycle 24 (SC24) activity reached a minimum in December 2019. Timeline for SC25 is explored with data for sunspot numbers (SSNs) and geomagnetic indices (aa/Ap) using our time-tested heuristic methodology not based on any model. We infer SC25 may be as active as SC24, reaching its peak (Rmax) in February 2024 ± 6 months, ruling out Dalton-like minimum in 21st century as well as McIntosh et al. [2020] forecast that “SC25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began.” Wide range of SC25 forecasts challenges our understanding of solar dynamo operation and reliability of future long-term space weather / climate forecasts. We cannot anticipate whether SC25 may have multiple peaks; no theory is tuned to predict fine structure of a SC. During ascending phase of SC24 a CME from the Sun barely missed the Earth. A direct hit by it could have caused damage of trillions of dollars, shutting down power grid and rendering satellites blind.
- Subjects :
- Atmospheric Science
Sunspot
Meteorology
Aerospace Engineering
Magnitude (mathematics)
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Solar cycle 24
Space weather
Geophysics
Earth's magnetic field
Space and Planetary Science
Range (statistics)
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Environmental science
Power grid
Solar dynamo
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 02731177
- Volume :
- 69
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Advances in Space Research
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........3b33ba3b49483a9edd070b43327007fc