Quantitative Precipitation Estimation of the Epic 2013 Colorado Flood Event: Polarization Radar-Based Variational Scheme

The accuracy of rain-rate estimation using polarimetric radar measurements has been improved as a result of better characterization of radar measurement quality and rain microphysics. In the literature, a variety of power-law relations between polarimetric radar measurements and rain rate are described because of the dynamic or varying nature of rain microphysics. A variational technique that concurrently takes into account radar observational error and dynamically varying rain microphysics is proposed in this study. Rain-rate estimation using the variational algorithm that uses event-based observational error and background rain climatological values is evaluated using observing system simulation experiments (OSSE), and its performance is demonstrated in the case of an epic Colorado flood event. The rain event occurred between 11 and 12 September 2013. The results from OSSE show that the variational algorithm with event-based observational error consistently estimates more accurate rain rate than does the “R(ZHH, ZDR)” power-law algorithm. On the contrary, the usage of ad hoc or improper observational error degrades the performance of the variational method. Furthermore, the variational algorithm is less sensitive to the observational error of differential reflectivity ZDR than is the R(ZHH, ZDR) algorithm. The variational quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) retrieved more accurate rainfall estimation than did the power-law dual-polarization QPE in this particular event, despite the fact that both algorithms used the same dual-polarization radar measurements from the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD).