Dynamic spatial panel estimates of war contagion

We estimate the temporal, spatial and “spatio-temporal” effects of war using a dynamic spatial panel model. Our argument is that it is important to account for both the space and temporal lags concurrently, while instead the existing literature largely tends to focus on one or the other. Key findings are as follows: first, there is evidence that both temporal and spatial effects significantly impact upon the duration of war. Second, we also find that the combined “spatio-temporal” interaction effect is significant only when excluding contemporaneous spatial lag effect. Third, while stronger for high-intensity conflict, spatial and temporal effects remain significant also for low-intensity conflict. Fourth, the spatial effect is stronger in magnitude for interstate wars. Our results point to the importance of regional co-operation for conflict prevention and peace stabilisation.