The Shutdown Risk Assessment of Wind Farms under Typhoon Disaster

Typhoon disaster can result in wind farms shutdown. With the large-scale integration of wind farms in power system, the wind farms shutdown may affect the operation of power system, causing the power shortage and voltage violation. In this paper, a shutdown risk assessment method is proposed to evaluate the risk of wind farms operation under typhoon disaster. Firstly, the distribution of forecast error of wind power under typhoon conditions is analyzed according to the historical data and is established as T distribution. Next, the real-time shutdown probability of wind farms is generated by the known cumulative error distribution. Then, the shutdown cost of wind farms are expressed by the cost of shedding load after wind power exiting, which is solved by particle swarm optimization method. Finally, the adjusted IEEE-33 node system with wind farms are adopted to verify the effectiveness of proposed method.