Incidence of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan: Results of the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project

Background: Precise enteric fever disease burden data are needed to inform prevention and control measures, including the use of newly available typhoid vaccines. To inform these strategies, the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP) conducted prospective, facility-based surveillance for Salmonella Typhi and S . Paratyphi A from 2016-2019. Methods: To generate population-based incidence estimates of enteric fever, we conducted prospective clinical surveillance at five hospitals in pre-determined catchment areas in Dhaka, Bangladesh, Kathmandu and Kavrepalanchok, Nepal, and Karachi, Pakistan. We employed a hybrid surveillance model, pairing facility-based blood culture surveillance with community surveys of healthcare utilization. Blood cultures were performed for enrolled patients. We calculated overall and age-specific typhoid and paratyphoid incidence estimates for each study site. Adjusted estimates accounted for the sensitivity of blood culture, the proportion of eligible individuals who consented and provided blood, the probability of care-seeking at a study facility, and the influence of wealth and education on care-seeking. Findings: Of the 33,136 blood cultures performed on enrolled patients, 8,705 (26%) were positive for typhoidal Salmonella . Adjusted incidence of S . Typhi, expressed per 100,000 person-years, was 1,110 (95% CI: 949-1,305) in Dhaka. In Nepal, the adjusted typhoid incidence rates were 330 (95% CI: 232-476) in Kathmandu and 271 (95% CI:205-365) in Kavrepalanchok. In Pakistan, the adjusted incidence rates per hospital site were 195 (95% CI:163-236) and 126 (95% CI:106-151). Although lower than the rates of typhoid, the adjusted incidence rates of paratyphoid were 150 ( 95% CI: 127-177) in Bangladesh, 49 (95% CI: 38-65) and 82 (95% CI: 57-116) in the Nepal sites, and 25 (95% CI: 21-31) and 1 (95% CI: 1-1) in the Pakistan sites. Adjusted incidence of hospitalization was high across sites, and overall 32% of case patients were hospitalized. Interpretation: Across diverse communities in three South Asian countries, adjusted incidence exceeded the threshold for “high burden” of enteric fever (100 per 100,000 person-years). Incidence was highest among children, although age patterns differed across sites. The substantial disease burden identified highlights the need for control measures, including improvements to water and sanitation infrastructure and the implementation of typhoid vaccines. Funding: This work was supported by a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number INV-008335). Declaration of Interest: None to declare. Ethical Approval: We obtained written informed consent from all eligible participants and the parents/guardians of participants aged