Modelling and Forecasting of Maize Production in South Asian Countries

The challenges of fighting poverty and enhancing food security in South Asia have made maize a strategic crop in this region. In this study, maize production in South Asia, encompassing Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, was analysed and projected from 1961 to 2027 using state-space and ARIMA models. The estimation outcomes demonstrated the state-space models’ superior performance in predicting trends in maize output for all eight time series. Additionally, the forecast estimation revealed that we anticipated an uptick in the output of maize in these nations; this finding would be encouraging for the countries in this region as it would heighten the problem of food security. India would be leading countries in maize with production of 380438 thousand tonnes in 2027.