Heterogeneous residential distribution changes and spillover effects by railway projects: The case study of Nagoya, Japan

This study aims to measure the causal relationship between three railway projects in different regions of Nagoya city and the residential distribution of different households. Rather than assuming that a railway project has an identical impact on all the neighborhoods in the treated group, this study proposes a heterogeneous difference-in-differences estimator to account for the heterogeneity in the treatment group, which is caused by different land cover characteristics. Specifically, the possible local spatial spillover effects are emphasized. The empirical application results indicate that (1) the northern neighborhoods near the Meijo and Aonami lines are attractive to households with higher income, (2) the southern neighborhoods near the Meijo line are appealing to middle-income households, (3) the low-income and old-single households prefer the southern neighborhoods along the Aonami line, and (4) the couple-with-children and old-couple households with lower income prefer to live around the Sakura-dori line. To conclude, railway-oriented communities, with different land use characteristics, attract different household types. This study’s findings have implications for policymakers, city planners, and scholars.