Commercial viability of lunar In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU)

In this paper, we propose an architecture for lunar in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) which can provide propellant, typically cryogenic hydrogen and oxygen, to a cislunar aggregation point in support of future space missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond at a price competitive with commercial delivery from Earth. This architecture is premised on maximizing the non-linear scaling laws of key system components: the ISRU plant, the nuclear reactor, and the reusable lunar lander. Engineering and cost models were developed to evaluate the impact of non-linear scaling laws on a reference architecture. The scaling laws applicable to each key system component were evaluated and incorporated in our model. We also provide sensitivity analysis showing how the model is impacted by commercial delivery costs to the cislunar aggregation point. This study showed that the cost of propellant sourced from lunar ISRU production can be lower than that delivered from Earth when maximal scale is utilized in sizing the key system components.