The relative contribution of orbital forcing and greenhouse gases to the North American deglaciation

Understanding what drove Northern Hemisphere ice sheet melt during the last deglaciation (21–7 ka) can help constrain how sensitive contemporary ice sheets are to greenhouse gas (GHGs) changes. The roles of orbital forcing and GHGs in the deglaciation have previously been modelled, but not yet quantified. Here, for the first time we calculate the relative effect of these forcings on the North American deglaciation by driving a dynamical ice sheet model (GLIMMER-CISM) with a set of un-accelerated transient deglacial simulations with a full primitive equation based ocean atmosphere general circulation model (FAMOUS). We find that by 9 ka, orbital forcing has caused 50% of the deglaciation, GHG 30% and the interaction between the two 20%. Orbital forcing starts affecting the ice volume at 19 ka, 2,000 years before CO2 starts increasing in our experiments, a delay which partly controls their relative effect.