Influence of antigenic drift on the intensity of influenza outbreaks: Upper respiratory tract infections of military conscripts in Finland

A total of 102,600 upper respiratory infections (URI) were recorded among young military conscripts in the Finnish Defence Forces during the study period from October 1991 to March 1994. This period covered three outbreaks caused by H3N2-subtype influenza A virus and one outbreak of influenza B. During the 1991/92 outbreak caused by A/Beijing/353/89-like virus, the calculated influenza A incidence was 2,206/10,000 men. During the 1992/93 outbreak when influenza B was the predominant virus, a new drift variant of influenza A that belonged to the lineage of A/Beijing/32/92-like and A/Shangdong/9/93-like viruses circulated but the incidence of influenza A was not more than 1,044/10,000. A higher incidence, 2,810/10,000, was recorded during the 1993/94 outbreak, when the circulating virus was similar to the 1992/93 virus antigenically and with regard to haemagglutinin and neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences. Crossreactive haemagglutination-inhibition antibodies induced in 1991/92 probably were sufficient to restrict the epidemic activity in 1992/93 but no longer in 1993/94. Furthermore, during the 1991/92 outbreak, some of the A/Beijing/353/89-like viruses already had shared the NA sequence markers characteristic of the viruses in 1992/93 and 1993/94, which may also have strengthened protection in 1992/93.