The Effect of Police Layoffs on Crime: Results from a Natural Experiment Involving New Jersey’s Two Largest Cities

The current study tests the effect of police layoffs on crime through a natural experiment involving Newark and Jersey City, New Jersey’s two largest municipalities. In response to severe budget shortfalls resulting from the economic recession beginning in 2008, officials in both Newark and Jersey City explored police layoffs as a potential component of their cutback strategies. In November 2010, the Newark Police Department terminated 13% of the police force while Jersey City officials were able to avert any layoffs from occurring. The current study uses monthly Part 1 crime counts spanning from 2006 to 2015 to measure the effect of the police layoffs on crime in Newark. Findings of time series generalized least squares regression models using panel data indicate the police layoffs were associated with significant increases of violent crime, murder, robbery, and larceny theft in Newark as compared to Jersey City. This study contributes to the literature on the relationship between police force size and crime by demonstrating sudden, drastic reductions in police force size may generate significant crime increases.