Towards Recovery: Scientists With Better Ratings of Their Institution’s COVID-19 Response Have More Optimistic Forecasts

Using a survey with randomized elements and truth-telling incentives, we document scientists’ beliefs about current and future disruptions to their research and how these beliefs depend on the eventual length of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, scientists with more favorable ratings of their institution’s response to the pandemic have more optimistic forecasts, even when controlling for their current level of disruptions. This relationship holds even amongst groups with the most pessimistic forecasts, who should be prioritized as science policy responses continue to develop.