Additional file 4: of Disparities in access to diagnosis and care in Blantyre, Malawi, identified through enhanced tuberculosis surveillance and spatial analysis

Figure S4. Predicted and observed TB cases in 315 Blantyre Health Surveillance Assistant catchment areas. A: All TB cases. B: Microbiologically confirmed TB cases. X-axes are Health Surveillance catchment areas, ordered in decreasing frequency by number of TB cases registered through enhanced TB surveillance. Red points are observed numbers of cases, blue points are predicted values, estimated by the Bayesian spatial regression models. Transparency of blue fitted points are inversely proportional to absolute distance from observed value. Predicted numbers of TB cases estimated by fitting a Bayesian spatial regression model with Poisson response, a k = 6 nearest-neighbours conditional spatial autocorrelation structure, with linear terms fitted for health surveillance assistant catchment area log10 total population, log10 population density, adult M:F ratio, mean number of people per household, log10 Cartesian distance from geographical centroid to the nearest TB clinic, proportion of population aged 15 years or older, mean proportion living on less than US $2 per day, sputum smear positive to negative ratio, offset term for log10 HSA population size, and with weakly informative prior on the population-level effects intercept (Gaussian: mean = 0, sd = 10), and predictor intercept (Gaussian, mean = 0, sd = 10). (PDF 109 kb)