Special Paper: The Dispersal of the Coconut: Did It Float or Was It Carried to Panama?

Debate on the origin and dispersal of Cocos nu- cifera has generally concluded that the palm has a South- east Asia-Melanesian origin. The means of dispersal to the margins of its pre-industrial range is in more dispute. The literature on this question is reviewed. A stochastic simula- tion model of the winds, currents and islands of the Pacific Ocean tests the hypothesis of trans-Pacific drift dispersal. The model suggests that the probability of coconuts drifting unaided to the west coast of Panama while remaining viable is extremely low. Dispersal to Panama by humans seems more likely.