Local atmospheric forcing driving an unexpected California Current System response during the 2015-2016 El Niño

The 2015-2016 El Nino contributed to large anomalies across the California Current System (CalCS), but these anomalies ceased unexpectedly in late 2015. Here, we use a suite of three hindcast simulations with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) to assess the responsible mechanisms for this development. We find that the early build-up was primarily driven by the early onset of this event in the tropical Pacific, driving anomalies in the CalCS through the propagation of coastally trapped waves. In contrast, the abrupt end in the central CalCS was caused by the unusual onset of upwelling favorable winds in the fall of 2015, which offset the continuing remote forcing through the coastal waveguide. Nevertheless, low nutrient anomalies persisted, causing anomalously low phytoplankton abundance in the upwelling season of 2016. This is a recurring pattern for all El Nino events over the last 37 years, suggesting predictive skill on seasonal timescales.