Changing Rice Cropping Patterns: Evidence from the Yangtze River Valley, China

The shift from double-season rice (DSR) to single-season rice (SSR) in the Yangtze River Valley in China has led to a decrease in the area of rice sown since the early 1980s and a decline in output since 1997. In this paper, changes in rice cropping patterns are described and a neoclassical household model is used to analyse differences in rice cropping patterns. The authors use the Probit model to analyse the impact on rice cropping patterns in the physical characteristics of plots, household economic characteristics and regional factors. They find that, in addition to the physical characteristics of plots, non-farm wage rates, land/labour ratios and ownership of labour-saving machinery all have significant impacts on rice cropping. Higher non-farm wages and higher land/labour ratios are associated with SSR; conversely, ownership of labour-saving machinery is associated with DSR. The policy implications are discussed.