Timing and magnitude of climate driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model to a species distribution model, we show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks would have shifted and 78% of the world EEZs will experience at least one shifting stock under a high emission climate change scenario. By the end of this century, 81% of EEZ waters will see at least one shifting stock with a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally, under a high emissions scenario. Importantly, many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for income, food and nutrition security, as well as livelihoods emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts showing early, and sometimes past shifts. Existing fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity in addressing transboundary shifts, and strengthened where necessary to limit conflict over these fish stocks while new agreements are urged to considere this problematic in order to be resilient to global change.