Development of an Air–Water Temperature Relationship Model to Predict Climate-Induced Future Water Temperature in Estuaries

To predict climate-induced change in aquatic environments, it is necessary to understand the thermal constraints of various fish species and to understand the timing of current and projected coastal temperatures. This paper presents a newly developed model of the relationship between air and water temperature that was constructed on the basis of harmonic analysis. The model is novel because it requires only a single variable (air temperature) to predict water temperature and captures the hysteresis patterns of the rising and falling limbs and their historic memories. The model was calibrated and validated with data collected from monitoring buoys in Mikawa Bay, Japan between 2005 and 2009. The model validation showed a good performance with a root mean squared error (RMSE) in the range of 0.8-1.0°C. It is especially encouraging that the suggested model can predict water temperature with a reasonable level of accuracy once an acceptable relationship between air temperature and water temperature has been constructed from previously measured data. DOI: 10.1061/ (ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0000499. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers. CE Database subject headings: Temperature effects; Water temperature; Climate change; Hysteresis; Estuaries. Author keywords: Air temperature; Water temperature; Climate change; Harmonic analysis; Hysteresis.