Classifying Pupils by Where They Live: How Well Does This Predict Variations in Their GCSE Results?

Classifying consumers according to the type of neighbourhood in which they live isnow standard practice among most of Britain?s successful consumer facingorganisations. In recent years these ?geodemographic? classifications have becomeincreasingly used in public sector applications. Their use has made it possible notjust to gain a clearer understanding of the level of inequalities that exist betweendifferent types of neighbourhood but also to understand which policy interventionsare likely to be most successful in different localities throughout the country.This paper summarises key findings resulting from the appending of the UK Mosaicneighbourhood classification system to the records of the Pupil Level Annual SchoolCensus. The most significant of these findings is that other than the performance ofthe pupil at an earlier key stage test the type of neighbourhood in which a pupil livesis a more reliable predictor of a pupil?s GCSE performance than any otherinformation held about that pupil on the PLASC database.Analysis then shows the extent to which the performance of pupils from anyparticular type of neighbourhood is also incrementally affected by theneighbourhoods from which the other pupils in the school they attend are drawn. Itfinds that whilst a pupil?s exam performance is affected primarily by the socialbackground of people he or she may encounter at home, the social background offellow school pupils is of only marginally lower significance.These findings suggest that so long as pupils? GCSE performances are so stronglyaffected by the type of neighbourhood in which they live, a school?s league positionbears only indirect relationship to the quality of school management and teaching. Abetter measurement of the latter would be a league table system which took intoaccount the geodemographic profile of each school?s pupil intake.The paper concludes with discussion of the relevance of these findings to thesociology of education, to the debate on consumer choice in public services, to thegeneral appropriateness of adjusting public sector performance metrics to take intoaccount the social mix of service users and to parental strategies in the educationalsector in particular. Classifying consumers according to the type of neighbourhood in which they live isnow standard practice among most of Britain?s successful consumer facingorganisations. In recent years these ?geodemographic? classifications have becomeincreasingly used in public sector applications. Their use has made it possible notjust to gain a clearer understanding of the level of inequalities that exist betweendifferent types of neighbourhood but also to understand which policy interventionsare likely to be most successful in different localities throughout the country.This paper summarises key findings resulting from the appending of the UK Mosaicneighbourhood classification system to the records of the Pupil Level Annual SchoolCensus. The most significant of these findings is that other than the performance ofthe pupil at an earlier key stage test the type of neighbourhood in which a pupil livesis a more reliable predictor of a pupil?s GCSE performance than any otherinformation held about that pupil on the PLASC database.Analysis then shows the extent to which the performance of pupils from anyparticular type of neighbourhood is also incrementally affected by theneighbourhoods from which the other pupils in the school they attend are drawn. Itfinds that whilst a pupil?s exam performance is affected primarily by the socialbackground of people he or she may encounter at home, the social background offellow school pupils is of only marginally lower significance.These findings suggest that so long as pupils? GCSE performances are so stronglyaffected by the type of neighbourhood in which they live, a school?s league positionbears only indirect relationship to the quality of school management and teaching. Abetter measurement of the latter would be a league table system which took intoaccount the geodemographic profile of each school?s pupil intake.The paper concludes with discussion of the relevance of these findings to thesociology of education, to the debate on consumer choice in public services, to thegeneral appropriateness of adjusting public sector performance metrics to take intoaccount the social mix of service users and to parental strategies in the educationalsector in particular.