Economic Fluctuations and Stabilization Policies

Economic fluctuations refer to ups and downs in the levels and/or rates of changes in the economic goal variables like real national income (GOP), inflation rate, and the rate of unemployment. Stabilization policies are the tools in the hands of the policy-makers to counter economic fluctuations and these include fiscal policy, monetary policy, and foreign exchange rate policy. This paper analyses the extent and depth of all major fluctuations (business cycles) across the G-7 countries, India, China, Malaysia, and the world as a whole during the Great Oepression and the last 40 years, identifies the major cause behind each significant departure from the trend, and examines the theoretical limitations as well as the actual application of the various policies to tame those business cycles. This paper finds that: Business cycles are universal. Each of the countries under analysis here has experienced an overall positive growth rate but also a negative growth rate, generally in more than one year, during the period of this study. Further, the standard deviation of the growth rate as a percentage of the growth rate (called the coefficient of variation) is sizeable in all countries as it varies between a low of 41 per cent in Malaysia and a high of 96 per cent in the UK. Business cycles are not always synchronized across countries. During the Great Depression and stagflation periods, most countries suffered from similar maladies but such a synchronization was rarely found in other times. For example, Japan performed relatively better during the 1950s and 1960s, and China and the South-East Asian economies enjoyed that position during the 1980s and 1990s. Further, while every country has experienced a negative growth rate, there is no year in the last 50 years in which the growth rate was negative in all countries. The world as a whole, of course, has always enjoyed a positive growth rate. Business cycles have become milder over time. During the Great Depression, output fell by over two digit rates in many countries japan experienced a two-digit growth rate in most of the years during 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s, but lately, the growth rate in most countries is hovering around 2 to 5 per cent. Business cycles are caused by varying events. While the adverse demand shock caused the Great Depression, the adverse supply shock triggered the stagflation and economic reforms have been responsible for hyperinflation, financial crises, and prosperity. always been applied in the right perspective. During the Great Depression, the nominal money supply should have increased but it fell and the government expenditure rose but only marginally. The simple correlation and multiple regression analysis' results for the three select countries suggest that while the monetary policy was conducted as an anti-cyclical tool in lndia, it was pro-cyclical in the US and China, and quite the opposite was the case with regard to the conduct of fiscal policy. The cycles are bad and it is unfortunate that the stabilization policies do not offer panacea to tame them fully. However, it is heartening to find that economic fluctuations have become milder over time and the credit for this goes to the innovative developments in the macroeconomic theory and to the improvements in the practice of stabilization policies. Though cycles are unlikely to be eradicated, there is now only little fear of severe crises in future like the Great Depression or stagflation.