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Potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on a shallow natural lake fish assemblage

Authors :
David W. Willis
Jason J. Breeggemann
Tanner M. Stevens
Jacob R. Krause
Mark A. Kaemingk
Steven R. Chipps
Craig P. Paukert
Alexander P. Letvin
Timothy J. DeBates
Source :
Ecology of Freshwater Fish. 25:487-499
Publication Year :
2015
Publisher :
Wiley, 2015.

Abstract

Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, USA. The patterns and magnitude of daily and cumulative consumption during the growing season (April–October) were generally similar between the two predators. However, growth of northern pike was always reduced (−3 to −45% change) compared to largemouth bass that experienced subtle changes (4 to −6% change) in weight by the end of the growing season. Assuming similar population size structure and numbers of predators in 2040–2060, future consumption of bluegill and yellow perch by northern pike and largemouth bass will likely increase (range: 3–24%), necessitating greater prey biomass to meet future energy demands. The timing of increased predator consumption will likely shift towards spring and fall (compared to summer), when prey species may not be available in the quantities required. Our findings suggest that increased water temperatures may affect species at the edge of their native range (i.e. northern pike) and a potential mismatch between predator and prey could exist.

Details

ISSN :
09066691
Volume :
25
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Ecology of Freshwater Fish
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........1927f1a1733b4976367a44b234c058e7
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1111/eff.12248