Simulation and Prediction of Land-Use Change in Urban Agglomerations Under Different Scenarios

Rapidly developing cities tend to expand outwards in a radial fashion, eventually merging to form agglomerations. As the connections between cities become close, the development space becomes increasingly saturated. It is essential to explore land-use change in urban development and formulate a reasonable development plan. In this study, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration was used as the research area. The future land-use distribution was simulated under three different scenarios, and their advantages and disadvantages were evaluated respectively with the Dyna-CLUE model. The results show that, through relevant policy restrictions, the development speed was slowed down to a certain extent. The types of land-use symbolizing ecology were slowly increasing, and the ecological environment has been improved to a certain extent. The ecological protection scenario optimized land-use distribution and effectively protected the environment, which is the more scientific and sustainable choice. The conclusions provided strong theoretical, technical and scientific support for the designation of urban development plans.