Integral Models to Improve Accuracy of the Off-Grid System Operation Forecasting

The presence of a great number of technical facilities that form a base of the intelligent network in the modern electric power systems requires a principally new approach to the research into the dynamic operating conditions of these systems. Currently consumers impose higher requirements for the quality of electricity and reliability of electricity supply. Therefore, the operating conditions of such power systems and their control, including that in the emergency conditions represent a challenging problem that needs to be studied. The authors use a universal approach to the mathematical modeling which is based on the input-output system represented by Volterra integro-power series. Staged training inputs were applied to identify transient characteristics. The calculation results presented in the paper demonstrate an increase in the modeling accuracy due to a more complete consideration of information on system outputs to the test inputs.