Population viability analysis of giant pandas in the Yele Nature Reserve

Small populations are subject to large fluctuations arising from random processes at a variety of levels (genetic drift, demographic variation and environmental catastrophes), and such variation can place a population at high risk of extinction. The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) has been studied extensively over a long period of time. Population trends can be estimated by Population Viability Analysis (PVA) in computer simulation models. Four possible scenarios were used in a Vortex computer model (Miller & Lacy 1999) to project the likely outcome of population change of the current panda population in the Yele Nature Reserve of western China. The results show that the number of pandas will slowly increase with no inbreeding and no environmental catastrophes (floods, fires, disease, etc.). However, when the model includes an inbreeding rate or a 1.67% probability of an environmental catastrophe, the population becomes extinct in 90 years and 60 years, respectively. The low viability projections of this isolated panda population, require strategies for restoring habitat quality of the Yele Nature Reserve.