The application of a figure of merit for nuclear explosive utility as a metric for material attractiveness in a nuclear material theft scenario

Effective integration of nonproliferation management into the design process is key to the broad deployment of advanced nuclear energy systems, and is an explicit goal of the Laser Inertial Fusion Energy (LIFE) project at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The nuclear explosives utility of a nuclear material to a state (proliferator) or sub-state (terrorist) is a critical factor to be assessed and is one aspect of material attractiveness. In this work, we approached nuclear explosives utility through the calculation of a “figure of merit” (FOM) that has recently been developed to capture the relative viability and difficulty of constructing nuclear explosives starting from various nuclear material forms and compositions. We discuss the integration of the figure of merit into an assessment of a nuclear material theft scenario and its use in the assessment. This paper demonstrates that material attractiveness is a multidimensional concept that embodies more than the FOM. It also seeks to propose that other attributes may be able to be quantified through analogous FOMs (e.g., transformation) and that, with quantification, aggregation may be possible using concepts from the risk community.