Early clinical outcome prediction based on the initial National Early Warning Score + Lactate (News+L) Score among adult emergency department patients

BackgroundThe National Early Warning Score + Lactate (NEWS+L) Score has been previously shown to outperform NEWS alone in prediction of mortality and need for critical care in a small adult ED study. We validated the score in a large patient data set and constructed a model that allows early prediction of the probability of clinical outcomes based on the individual’s NEWS+L Score.MethodsIn this retrospective study, we included all adult patients who visited the ED of a single urban academic tertiary-care university hospital in South Korea for five consecutive years (1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019). The initial (ResultsAfter excluding 808 patients (0.5%) from 149 007 patients in total, the study cohort consisted of 148 199 patients. The mean NEWS+L Score was 3.3±3.8. The AUROC value was 0.789~0.813 for the NEWS+L Score with good calibration (calibration-in-the-large=−0.082~0.001, slope=0.964~0.987, Brier Score=0.011~0.065). The AUPRC values of the NEWS+L Score for outcomes were 0.331~0.415. The AUROC and AUPRC values of the NEWS+L Score were greater than those of NEWS alone (AUROC 0.744~0.806 and AUPRC 0.316~0.380 for NEWS). Using the equation, 48 hours hospital mortality rates for NEWS+L Score of 5, 10 and 15 were found to be 1.1%, 3.1% and 8.8%, and for the composite outcome 9.2%, 27.5% and 58.5%, respectively.ConclusionThe NEWS+L Score has acceptable to excellent performance for risk estimation among undifferentiated adult ED patients, and outperforms NEWS alone.