Spatiotemporal variations in juvenile mortality and cohort strength of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) off Newfoundland and Labrador

Juvenile mortality is an important factor affecting the spatiotemporal dynamics of fish recruitment, but estimation of the spatiotemporal variations in juvenile mortality rates remains challenging. We developed a state-space metapopulation dynamics model to simultaneously estimate spatiotemporal variations in juvenile mortality rates and cohort strength and applied this general modelling framework to data from multiple surveys for juvenile (ages 2–5) Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks off Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). We found large-scale synchronized dynamics of decreasing juvenile mortality rates and increasing cohort strength from offshore surveys off eastern and southeastern NL, suggesting improving reproduction and survival rates for juvenile cod. No synchronized patterns of juvenile mortality rates and cohort strength were detected for cod stocks off southern and western NL, indicating more complex cod population spatial structures in those areas. Our study demonstrates the potential of juvenile mortality to cause temporally variable and spatially synchronized dynamics of fish recruitment, and the spatial patterns of juvenile mortality and cohort strength indicate some potential mismatch between cod population structure and current management units off NL.