Estimating the transport value of a Barrage across Morecambe Bay

Quarmby D. A. (1970) Estimating the transport value of a Barrage across Morecambe Bay, Reg. Studies 4, 205–239. The paper describes an attempt to estimate the net transport value of a road built on top of a Morecambe Bay Barrage whose primary purpose would be water supply. The basic method involved a traffic model to simulate vehicle movements on the road network in the area, and an economic evaluation procedure to measure benefits arising from changes in the network. Problems included the strong dependence of benefits to the Barrage road on the possible existence of other projects such as the Arnside Link and the Duddon Estuary crossing (and vice versa), and the budget constraint on road building in the Ministry of Transport which has the effect of raising the criteria for road projects above those normally required for other public sector investments. The effects of tolls were also studied.