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Meta-Modeling to Assess the Possible Future of Paris Agreement

Authors :
Frédéric Louis François Babonneau
Marc Vielle
Alain Haurie
Alain Bernard
Source :
Environmental Modeling & Assessment. 23:611-626
Publication Year :
2018
Publisher :
Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2018.

Abstract

In the meta-modeling approach, one builds a numerically tractable dynamic optimization or game model in which the parameters are identified through statistical emulation of a detailed large scale numerical simulation model. In this paper, we show how this approach can be used to assess the economic impacts of possible climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement. One indicates why it is appropriate to assume that an international carbon market, with emission rights given to different groups of countries will exist. One discusses the approach to evaluate correctly abatement costs and welfare losses incurred by different groups of countries when implementing climate policies. Finally, using a recently proposed meta-model of game with a coupled constraint on a cumulative CO2 emissions budget, we assess several new scenarios for possible fair burden sharing in climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement.

Details

ISSN :
15732967 and 14202026
Volume :
23
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Environmental Modeling & Assessment
Accession number :
edsair.doi...........0f61aa32b952ab219ffea339b8fe3058