SARS-CoV-2 disease in Northwestern Himalayan region, India: evolution, forecast and impact of preventive measures

Aim: The outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated in December 2019, and within couple of months it has turned out to be a global health emergency. Given the importance to assess the evolution and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to forecast the next scenario of the pandemic in the future, mainly in countries with limited health care system, we estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), India, and a possible scenario for this pandemic in the region.Subject and Methods: We estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in its first outbreak stage in the North western region of Himalaya, India, and we also predicted new daily cases for the next 90 days using different R0, testing a plausible end of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak;Results: Our results showed a considerable increase in the number of cases, but with a tendency to asymptote. Anantnag, Bandipora, Baramulla, Shopian, and Srinagar districts showed more than 100 cases and Kulgam and Kathua districts showed strong growth of the number of cases from the beginning of May, without a tendency to normalization. The estimated R0 for J&K region was 1.041; but by decreasing 10, 25 and 50% the R0, we observed a great decrease in the daily number of new cases, specially by decreasing 50%;Conclusion: Here, we indicate positive effects of the preventive measures, as lockdown and social distance, taken in J&K region, showing a stabilization of the growth curves of new cases of SARS-CoV-2, which tends to a strong decrease over time as the R0 decreases.