Accuracy Estimation of Probabilistic Wake Vortex Prediction Considering Weather Information Errors

Current wake vortex separation minima are a major impediment to increasing traffic capacity since they require greater separations than radar separation minima. The concept of dynamic wake vortex separation minima, which would allow reduced separations in favorable meteorological conditions when wake durations on flight paths become shorter, would allow an increase in capacity. This paper proposes a methodology that uses a probabilistic wake vortex prediction model to probabilistically assure that wake vortex encounter risks at reduced separations are equal or lower than the risks at current separations.