A preliminary analysis of economic fluctuations and climate changes in China from BC 220 to AD 1910

Understanding the socioeconomic effects of past climate change is valuable for sustainable social development. However, quantitative analyses of the long-term relationships between climate change and human society have been limited by a lack of long-term high-resolution data that indicate socioeconomic processes. Here, based on 1,091 records extracted from 25 books on Chinese history and economic history written by leading contemporary scholars, an economic proxy series for China with decadal resolution is presented that encompasses the period from BC 220 to AD 1910. A method for semantic differential and integrating descriptions with multi-time resolution is developed. The statistical results show that warm and wet periods were associated with above-average economic performance, while cold and dry climatic scenarios greatly increased the possibility of economic crisis. Temperature was more influential than precipitation in explaining the long-term economic fluctuations, whereas precipitation displayed more significant effects on the short-term macro-economic cycle. It is proposed that the climatic effects on agrarian economic development were highly dependent on the social vulnerability, which is determined by particular social, economic and political backgrounds. From a deep time perspective, our study may provide new insight into the current intense arguments regarding the economic effects of global warming.