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Renewable energy prediction: A novel short-term prediction model of photovoltaic output power
- Source :
- Journal of Cleaner Production. 228:359-375
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- Elsevier BV, 2019.
-
Abstract
- Photovoltaic power generation is gradually developing into a massive power industry with the maturity of renewable energy power generation technologies. Photovoltaic power generation is greatly affected by external factors and the output power is characterized by randomness and indirectness, which poses a great challenge to photovoltaic grid-connection. A hybrid improved multi-verse optimizer algorithm (HIMVO) is proposed to optimize the support vector machine for photovoltaic output prediction. HIMVO algorithm introduces chaotic sequences to initialize the population, which significantly enhances the convergence rate of the algorithm compared with the multi-universe optimizer algorithm. This study applied particle swarm optimization algorithm, dragonfly algorithm, multi-universe optimizer algorithm and HIMVO to testify the availability of the hybrid improved multi-verse optimizer support vector machine model (HIMVO-SVM). The results indicate that HIMVO algorithm has better optimization ability and stability. The four models, HIMVO-SVM, multi-verse optimizer support vector machine, particle swarm optimization support vector machine, back propagation and radical basis function neural network are used to predict output in three different weather types. The results indicate that the model has higher prediction accuracy and stability. The mean square error value of the HIMVO-SVM model decreases by at least 0.0026, 0.0030 and 0.0012, and the mean absolute percentage error value decreases by at least 3.6768%, 1.9772% and 2.7165%, respectively. The proposed method is beneficial to the prediction of output power and conduces to the economic dispatch of the grid and the maintenance of the stability of the power system.
- Subjects :
- education.field_of_study
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Computer science
020209 energy
Strategy and Management
05 social sciences
Population
Economic dispatch
Stability (learning theory)
Particle swarm optimization
02 engineering and technology
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Support vector machine
Electric power system
Electricity generation
Mean absolute percentage error
Control theory
050501 criminology
0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering
education
0505 law
General Environmental Science
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 09596526
- Volume :
- 228
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Cleaner Production
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........0ae79aca585eca221cb26a937ec15c7f