Ki-67 index enhances the prognostic accuracy of the urothelial superficial bladder carcinoma risk group classification

Approximately 80% of bladder tumors are urothelial superficial papillary carcinomas (USPC). Despite a generally good prognosis, these tumors have a strong propensity to recur and about 1/3 of them compared to disease progression. Histological assessment of these superficial tumors is not sufficiently discriminator in predicting prognosis; therefore, we decided to evaluate the prognostic significance of p53 and Ki-67 immunoexpression in low-grade (GI-II) USPC in order to predict the potential outcome of these tumors. P53 and Ki-67 immunoexpression were studied in function of recurrence-free and progression-free survival in 159 primary superficial bladder tumors. A prognostic risk model based on grade, stage and multifocality was also evaluated. P53 accumulation was significantly related to tumor progression (p=0.006). High Ki-67 index (≥18%) and multifocality were significantly related to recurrence (both p=0.0001) and progression-free survival (both p=0.0001) and were independent prognostic factors in the multivariate analysis. The prognostic risk model based on grade, stage and multifocality was not an efficient discriminator of outcome. Adding the Ki-67 index into the risk model, single pTa/T1-GI Ki-67 positive tumors, usually classified as low risk, were reclassified as of intermediate risk. After this reclassification, the risk group model identified a subgroup of pTa/T1-G1 with a high risk of recurrence and progression. Ki-67 index is a reliable prognostic marker in urothelial superficial bladder carcinoma and, when included into a risk profile classification of the low-grade USPC, the accuracy of the prognostic discrimination is enhanced. © 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.