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[Untitled]
- Source :
- PLOS Computational Biology.
-
Abstract
- It is estimated that the Earth’s biocapacity is unable to meet current demands, which begs the question: is a sustainable future possible for both humans and the environment? The UN projects a human population of approximately 11 billion by the end of the 21st century; requiring additional agricultural land, greater demands for natural resources, and technological advancements. We model human population over the next century, emphasizing feedbacks between natural and agricultural resource availability and human demography. We argue that an intensive agriculture approach to feeding the growing population is ill-conceived, without considering biodiversity and ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, pollination, water purification, pest control). The productivity of agricultural land and human population dynamics are dependent on the area of natural land—generally, tipping at 5 billion ha of natural land (approximately 40% of the Earth’s terrestrial area). Furthermore, our model shows that an imprudent proactive approach (i.e., focusing on agriculture and ignoring ecosystem services) limits the success of reactive measures (i.e., restoration) in the future, while the inability to react to changes and recover natural systems leads to human population decline.
- Subjects :
- 0106 biological sciences
0301 basic medicine
Natural resource economics
Population
010603 evolutionary biology
01 natural sciences
Ecosystem services
Human population dynamics
03 medical and health sciences
Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience
Agricultural land
11. Sustainability
Genetics
Population growth
education
Molecular Biology
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
education.field_of_study
Ecology
15. Life on land
Natural resource
030104 developmental biology
Geography
Computational Theory and Mathematics
13. Climate action
Modeling and Simulation
Sustainability
Biocapacity
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 15537358
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- PLOS Computational Biology
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi...........06cea01786d45f3a4cd48704733c3424