Machine Learning for Deepwater Drilling: Gas-Kick-Alarm Classification Using Pilot-Scale Rig Data with Combined Surface-Riser-Downhole Monitoring

Summary Gas kicks occur frequently in deepwater drilling because of the extremely narrow mud-weight window [minimum 0.01 specific gravity (sg)]. The traditional kick-detection method mainly relies on the driller's analysis of monitored compound comprehensive mud-logging data. However, the traditional method has significant time lag, including missed and false detection, and often leads to severe gas influxes during deepwater drilling. A novel machine-learning (ML) model is presented here using pilot-scale rig data combined with surface-riser-downhole monitoring for gas-kick early detection and risk classification. A series of pilot-scaletest-well experiments (a total of 108 tests) are performed to simulate deepwater gas kicks and produce a multisource data set through fusion of comprehensive mud-logging data from surface monitoring, acoustic data from riser-monitoring technologies, and measurement-while-drilling data [e.g., bottomhole pressure (BHP)] from downhole monitoring technologies. During these experiments, the deepwater blowout preventer (BOP) is simulated using a variable cross section of crossover (X/O; equipped with booster-flow pipes); the Coriolis flowmeter is installed in the mud-return pipe to accurately measure flow out; the acoustic wave sensors are installed outside of the riser section (X/O) to monitor gas migration; and the downhole memory pressure gauges are installed to monitor BHP. Next, data preparation and data analysis are performed including raw-data exploration, data cleaning, signal/noise-ratio (SNR) analysis, feature scaling, outlier detection, and feature engineering. Further, a novel and improved data-labeling criterion for gas-kick alarms is proposed, with six levels (displayed using different colors) instead of two-state alarms (“kick” or “no kick”). The proposed gas-kick-alarm classification is in accordance with the actual field practices. Subsequently, four ML algorithms—decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), and long short-term memory (LSTM)—are developed through the complete workflow, beginning with the data allocation and followed by building, evaluation, and optimization of each ML model. Because the LSTM recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithm showed the best performance, it is selected and deployed to early detect gas kicks and classify the corresponding kick alarms. The recall for gas-kick levels corresponding to Risk 0, Risk 1, Risk 2, Risk 3, Risk 4, and Risk 5 are 0.92, 0.93, 0.91, 0.91, 0.92 and 0.92, respectively. Because recall for each gas-kick-alarm level is greater than 0.9, it ensures rare false negatives (FNs) during kick detection. The accuracy, precision, recall, and f1 score of the deployed LSTM model in the testing data set is 91.6%, 0.93, 0.92 and 0.92, respectively. Further, the detection time delay is approximately 2 to 7 seconds only, which provides an improved time margin to take appropriate safety measures, promptly deal with a gas kick through a well-control program, and prevent a potential blowout during deepwater drilling.